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CIC National Capital (Ottawa): The Russian-Iranian Tactical Alliance
November 14, 2018 @ 7:00 pm - 9:00 pm EST
While Russia and Iran share the short-term strategic objective of propping up Assad versus rebel and jihadist outfits, both diverge in their long-term strategic imperatives regarding the Syrian endgame. Due to the Kremlin’s greater military and diplomatic clout, Tehran being the junior partner, is worried that Moscow might strike a deal with the armed opposition’s foreign backers, a move viewed as ultimately detrimental to its geopolitical interests in the Levant. Therefore, in addition to the ongoing conflict between regime and anti-regime forces, a silent power struggle is brewing within the Assad camp between Iran and Russia who are vying for control of the Alawite-dominated dictatorship. This competition takes numerous shapes including the support of different loyalist armed groups as well as economic assistance and religious diplomacy. Considering the brewing tensions between its Russian and Iranian backers, Assad is exploiting those differences to safeguard his regime.
Alexis Amini is a Research Analyst at the NATO Association of Canada (NAOC) focusing mainly on Middle East geopolitics and the aerospace/defence industry. He is also a political risk analyst at UK-based Global Risk Insights (GRI) concentrating on geopolitical volatility in emerging markets. Alexis Amini possesses a master’s degree in Public and International Affairs from Université de Montréal.
Hamid Jorjani, Ph.D.