The event will be moderated by Ms. Margaret Huber, the former President of the CIC National Capital Branch and a former Canadian ambassador to Europe and the Middle East.

Overview: The tactical shift in Iran’s nuclear policy poses a challenge for non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East. In response to the Trump administration’s policy of “maximum pressure”, Tehran declared to no longer  accept any technical limitations to its nuclear program as laid out in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and has since ramped up its nuclear activities. As the Iranian leadership has ceased to fully implement the technical provisions of the JCPOA, it has significantly reduced the time it would take to produce a nuclear bomb. While there is currently no indication that Tehran is seeking weapon related activities, Iran’s nuclear program remains a concern. Strategic decisions in Tehran may also have an impact on the calculation and nuclear ambitions of other regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Tensions in the Middle East have already risen with a series of unattributed attacks, including an explosion at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in July 2020. At the same time, there has been ongoing domestic pressure in Iran to exit the deal and the Non Proliferation Treaty altogether. Iran’s nuclear strategic thinking will be affected by the aftermath of the US elections as well as the outcome of Iranian presidential elections in June 2021. During the critical period between US and Iran elections, European actors are in the best position to facilitate nuclear talks and a new political compromise between Iran and the US. This provides the best chance to prevent a major nuclear proliferation crisis in the Middle East.